The question ‘are we alone’ remains one of the deepest philosophical questions facing humanity. The idea that we could be the sole bearers of civilization in the universe seems unlikely, yet concrete evidence of space brothers remains elusive.
The Fermi paradox underlines this tension, pointing out the discrepancy between the high probability of alien civilizations and our lack of contact with such entities.
This paradox suggests two possibilities: either alien life does not exist, or it is so unusual that encountering it would be extremely unlikely.
On the other hand, the Drake equation provides a method to estimate the number of advanced civilizations in our Galaxy. Historically, this comparison has suggested a wide range of possible civilizations, with estimates by SETI pioneer Frank Drake himself ranging from 1,000 to 100,000,000 in the Milky Way.
However, as scientific knowledge advances, so have researchers revisited these calculations with new data.
A key focus of their recalibration is the role of plate tectonics in promoting life. Researchers claim that tectonic activity, which brings new rocks to the surface, is vital for supplying phosphorus and other inorganic nutrients essential for life.
“Tectonic processes that expose fresh rocks to the surface are crucial for improving the supply of [phosphorus] and other inorganic nutrients,” they wrote.
“The addition of [phosphorus], [iron] and other nutrients from erosion and weathering of the Ediacaran collision mountains broke the aridity of the Mesoproterozoic, stimulating life and evolution.”
They point out that nutrient influx due to the erosion of ancient mountain ranges likely ended a significant period of nutrient scarcity, catalyzing biological activity and evolution.
Initial estimates of this new model ranged from 0.006 to 100,000 intelligent civilizations.
Yet this figure is not definitive, as it must also take into account the self-destructive tendencies of civilizations through nuclear warfare, artificial intelligence, pandemics and other existential threats.
