H. Colleen Sinclair: Conspiracy theories are everywhere and can apply to almost anything.
People believe false conspiracy theories for a wide variety of reasons – including the fact that real conspiracies exist, such as the Sackler family’s attempts to profit from hiding the addictive effects of OxyContin at the cost of countless American lives.
The extreme consequences of baseless conspiratorial beliefs were seen on the steps of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, and in the self-immolation of a protester outside the courthouse where the last Trump trial took place.
But if there really are hidden forces at work in the world, how can anyone know what is really going on?
That’s where my research comes in; I’m a social psychologist who studies misleading stories. Here are some ways to investigate a claim you’ve seen or heard.
Step 1: Find the evidence
Real conspiracies were confirmed because there was evidence. For example, in the 1990s accusations that tobacco companies knew cigarettes were dangerous and kept that information secret to make money, scientific studies have shown problematic links between tobacco and cancer.
Lawsuits have uncovered company documents with internal memos showing what executives knew and when. Investigative journalists exposed attempts to conceal that information. Doctors explained the effects on their patients. Internal whistleblowers sounded the alarm.
But baseless conspiracy theories reveal their lack of evidence and instead replace several elements that should be warning signs for skeptics:
Rejecting traditional sources of evidence and claiming involvement in the plot.
Claiming that missing information is because someone is hiding it, even though it is common for not all the facts to be fully known for some time after an event.
Attacking apparent inconsistencies as evidence of lies.
Overinterpreting ambiguity as evidence: A flying object may not have been identified, but that is different from identifying it as an alien spaceship.
The use of anecdotes – especially if vaguely attributed – rather than evidence, such as ‘people say ‘this and that’ or ‘my cousin’s friend experienced something’.
Attributing knowledge to secret messages that only a select few can understand – rather than evidence that is clear and obvious to everyone.
Step 2: Test the claim
Often a conspiracy theorist only presents evidence that confirms his or her idea. Rarely do they subject their ideas to the tests of logic, reasoning and critical thinking.
While they may say they do research, they generally do not apply the scientific method. Specifically, they don’t really try to prove them wrong.
So a skeptic might follow the method that scientists use when conducting research: think about what evidence would contradict the explanation—and then look for that evidence.
Sometimes that effort will result in confirmation that the explanation is correct. And sometimes not. Ask yourself like a scientist: what would it take for you to believe that your perception was wrong?
Step 3: Beware of tangled webs
When theories claim that large groups of people engage in diverse activities over a long period of time, that is another warning sign.
Confirmed conspiracies usually involve small, isolated groups, such as corporate leadership or a single terrorist cell. Even the alliance among tobacco companies to hide the danger of their products was limited to those at the top, who made decisions and employed paid scientists and advertising agencies to spread their messages.
False conspiracies tend to involve large groups of people, such as world leaders, mainstream media, the global scientific community, the Hollywood entertainment industry, and interconnected government agencies.
The online manifesto of Max Azzarello – the man who set himself on fire on the steps of a New York courthouse in April 2024 – denounced a conspiracy that has reportedly involved every president since Bill Clinton, sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and even the writers of ‘The Simpsons ‘ included. ”
Remember, the more people who know a secret, the harder it is to keep.
Step 4: Look for a motif
Confirmed conspiracies tell stories about why a group of people acted the way they did and what they hoped to gain. Dubious conspiracies involve many accusations or just questions, without examining what real benefit the conspiracy brings to the conspirators, especially when the costs are taken into account.
For example, what purpose would NASA serve by lying about the existence of Finland?
Be especially suspicious when conspiracies claim that an ‘agenda’ is being carried out by an entire socio-demographic group, which is often a marginalized group, such as a ‘gay agenda’ or ‘Muslim agenda’.
Also see if those spreading the conspiracy theories have anything to gain. For example, scientific research has identified the twelve people who are the main sources of false claims about vaccinations. The researchers also found that those people benefit from making these claims.
Step 5: Find the source of the accusations
If you can’t figure out who is behind a conspiracy allegation and therefore how they came to know what they are claiming, that’s another red flag.
Some people say they must remain anonymous because the conspirators will retaliate for revealing information. Still, a conspiracy can usually be traced to its source – perhaps a social media account, even an anonymous account.
Over time, anonymous sources emerge or are revealed. For example, years after the Watergate scandal toppled Richard Nixon’s presidency, it was revealed that a key inside source known as “Deep Throat” was Mark Felt, who had been a high-ranking FBI official in the early 1970s.
Even the infamous “Q” at the heart of the QAnon conspiracy cult has been identified, and not by government investigators hunting for leaks of national secrets. Surprise! Q is not the high-ranking official some people believed.
Reliable sources are transparent.
Step 6: Beware of the supernatural
Some conspiracy theories – although none have been proven – involve paranormal, alien, demonic or other supernatural forces. People who lived in the 1980s and 1990s may remember the public fear that satanic cults were abusing and sacrificing children. That idea never completely disappeared.
And around the same time, some Americans, perhaps inspired by the TV series “V,” began to believe in lizard people. It may seem harmless to keep hoping for evidence of Bigfoot, but the person who detonated a bomb in downtown Nashville on December 25, 2020 apparently believed that lizard people ran the Earth.
The closer the conspiracy is to science fiction, the closer it is to just being fiction.
Step 7: Look for other warning signs
There are also other warning signs, such as the use of prejudice against the group behind the conspiracy, especially anti-Semitic accusations.
But instead of doing the work to really examine their conspiratorial beliefs, believers often choose to write off the skeptics as fools or as people who are also in on it – whatever “it” may be.
Ultimately, that’s part of the appeal of conspiracy theories. It’s easier to ignore criticism than to admit that you might be wrong.
H. Colleen Sinclair, associate professor of social psychology, Louisiana State University
This article is republished from The conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
